Match Analysis: Liberty Flames vs Missouri State Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg, Virginia
Game Overview
Liberty Flames (4-4) host Missouri State Bears (5-3) in a CUSA matchup. Liberty is favored by 7.5 points with a total set at 51.5 points. Liberty has been inconsistent ATS this season, while Missouri State has a better ATS record and has covered the spread as an underdog multiple times.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liberty is 4-4 overall and 3-1 in conference with recent strong offensive output, including a 59-30 win over Delaware. Missouri State is 5-3, 3-1 in conference, coming off a 28-21 win over Florida International. Liberty struggles ATS as favorites; Missouri State shows resilience as underdogs.
- No recent direct matchups between these teams available, but given both are in the same conference, performances against common opponents are close. Liberty shows more home success.
- No major injuries reported impacting either team's starting lineup or key players in this matchup.
- Game played at Liberty home field Williams Stadium with stable weather (67Β°F, 0% rain). No reported external disruptions.
- Both teams are fighting for better conference positioning; Liberty, as a .500 team, looks to assert control at home, Missouri State aims to continue its better overall winning record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -325, away: +260 | Liberty Flames | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | home: -115, away: -105 | Liberty Flames -7.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -102, under: -118 | Under 51.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 51.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liberty Flames to win moneyline and cover the 7.5-point spread; game total to go under 51.5 points.
Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 28 – Missouri State Bears 18