Match Analysis: Liberty Flames vs James Madison Dukes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 10:07 PM UTC
- Location: Williams Stadium
Game Overview
James Madison Dukes (1-1) host Liberty Flames (1-2) in a competitive Group of 5 matchup featuring a clash between a strong ground game and a resilient home team with a positive September home record.
Key Factors to Consider
- James Madison sports a solid rushing offense averaging 219.5 yards per contest, while defensively they allow just 19 points per game. Liberty has struggled early at 1-2 but has an offense averaging about 21.67 points and a defense allowing 21.33 points per game.
- Liberty has a psychological edge at home, having won their last 12 September home games at Williams Stadium. James Madison has been vulnerable on the road, losing 4 of their last 5 away games.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting key offensive or defensive players.
- Game played at Liberty's home Williams Stadium with favorable weather (81Β°F, no rain, low wind) aiding offensive execution.
- Liberty motivated to improve from a slow start and maintain September home dominance; James Madison looking to stabilize after a recent loss and prove their road resiliency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | James Madison -335, Liberty +265 | James Madison | β β β β β 76% |
Spread | James Madison -9.5 -110, Liberty +9.5 -110 | Liberty +9.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 46.5 -110, Under 46.5 -110 | Under 46.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Liberty Flames -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 46.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
James Madison Dukes to win straight up on the moneyline, but Liberty to cover the spread given the +9.5 advantage and recent trends. Total points expected to stay under 46.5 given defensive strengths and lower scoring averages.
Predicted Score: James Madison Dukes 24 – Liberty Flames 17