Match Analysis: Kentucky Wildcats vs Ole Miss Rebels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Game Overview
The Ole Miss Rebels (1-0) visit the Kentucky Wildcats (1-0) in a pivotal SEC matchup. Ole Miss enters as a strong favorite with a double-digit spread, driven by a powerful running game and stout defense, while Kentucky looks to defend their home turf after an early season opening victory.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ole Miss has won 5 of their last 6 regular season games, showing strong balance with a 295 yards per game rushing attack and a defense allowing only 7 points per game. Kentucky is 1-0 but has struggled against the spread recently and their offensive production is less dominant.
- Ole Miss upset Kentucky in last season's meeting, and computer models simulate Ole Miss winning about 84% of matchups this year with an expected 11.5 point margin, suggesting a trend favoring Ole Miss in recent and projected encounters.
- No significant injuries reported for key starters on either side impacting this matchup heavily, keeping both teams at near full strength.
- The game is at Kentuckyβs Kroger Field with moderate weather and no severe conditions expected; home crowd factors favor Kentucky but Ole Miss's superior form diminishes this advantage.
- Ole Miss aims to reaffirm dominance in the SEC after last year's upset and sustain momentum on a strong schedule start; Kentucky is motivated to defend home ground but lacks the recent form edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Kentucky +295, Ole Miss -375 | Ole Miss | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Kentucky +10 -112, Ole Miss -10 -108 | Ole Miss -10 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 50.5 -110, Under 50.5 -110 | Under 50.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 50.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ole Miss Rebels to win straight up and cover the -10 spread; game to go under the total points line.
Predicted Score: Ole Miss 28 – Kentucky 16