Match Analysis: Kentucky Wildcats vs Florida Gators – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Game Overview
Kentucky Wildcats and Florida Gators meet with identical 3-5 records in a crucial SEC matchup at Kentucky’s home field. Florida is a slight favorite on the moneyline and spread, coming off a narrow loss to Georgia, while Kentucky is riding momentum from a recent road win over Auburn.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams have 3-5 records with Florida slightly better in conference play (2-3 SEC vs Kentucky’s 1-5 SEC). Kentucky’s defense has shown strength recently in a low-scoring win against Auburn (10-3), while Florida has had a more balanced attack but suffered a close 24-20 loss to a strong Georgia team.
- Florida won last year’s matchup decisively 48-20 at home. However, Kentucky seeks revenge on home turf. Historical dominance favors Florida, but recent defensive performances boost Kentucky's confidence.
- No major injuries reported for either team, key starters expected to play, maintaining typical team strength.
- Game held at Kroger Field with mild weather (53°F, no rain) and light wind, minimizing weather impact. Crowd support likely favors Kentucky, which can be a factor in close games.
- Both teams are desperate for a signature SEC win to improve bowl eligibility and momentum late in the season, enhancing motivation and effort from both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida Gators: -158, Kentucky Wildcats: +134 | Florida Gators | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Florida Gators -3.5: -102, Kentucky Wildcats +3.5: -120 | Kentucky Wildcats +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 44.5: -110, Under 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida Gators -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 44.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kentucky Wildcats cover the +3.5 spread
Predicted Score: Kentucky Wildcats 17 – 21 Florida Gators