Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs Texas Tech Red Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
Game Overview
The No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) visit the Kansas State Wildcats (4-4) in a Big 12 matchup. Texas Tech is favored by about a touchdown, with total expected scoring near 52.5 points. Texas Tech comes off a dominant 42-0 shutout win versus Oklahoma State, while Kansas State narrowly defeated Kansas 42-17.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas Tech has a strong 7-1 record and dominant recent form with a blowout win, showcasing their top-ranked run defense and aggressive pass rush. Kansas State is average at 4-4 with recent improvement but struggles defending the run and generating pressure.
- Recent meetings favor Texas Tech, who have controlled trenches and matchups. Kansas Stateβs dual-threat QB is effective under pressure but Texas Techβs defensive front excels at pressuring and containing such QBs.
- Texas Techβs starting QB Behren Morton is back from injury, significantly boosting offensive capability and depth. Kansas State has no major reported injuries affecting starting personnel.
- Playing at Kansas Stateβs home stadium may provide minimal crowd advantage, but Texas Techβs superior defensive pressure is expected to offset this. Weather and other external conditions appear neutral.
- Texas Tech seeks to maintain top national ranking momentum and strengthen their Big 12 title hopes, displaying high motivation. Kansas State aims to upset and gain bowl eligibility, with moderate motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas State Wildcats: +240, Texas Tech Red Raiders: -298 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Kansas State Wildcats: +7.5 -115, Texas Tech Red Raiders: -7.5 -105 | Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over: 51.5 -112, Under: 51.5 -108 | Over 51.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 51.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas Tech Red Raiders to cover the -7.5 spread with confidence, driven by dominant defense and the return of key offensive players. Expect the total to go over 51.5 given both teamsβ recent scoring and offensive potential.
Predicted Score: Texas Tech 35 – Kansas State 21