Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs Army Black Knights – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
Game Overview
The Kansas State Wildcats (1-1) host the Army Black Knights (0-1) in a Week 2 NCAAF matchup. Kansas State enters as strong favorites with a home advantage and a -17.5 point spread. Army is off a close, double overtime win against Tarleton State but struggled in their first game. Kansas State's offense, led by Avery Johnson, has shown strong passing and rushing production, while Army relies heavily on their strong ground game led by Dewayne Coleman.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kansas State is 1-1 with solid offensive stats: quarterback Avery Johnson has thrown for over 590 yards and 5 touchdowns over two games, and running back Joe Jackson has over 100 rushing yards in recent action. Defensively, K-State has struggled to cover the spread, going 0-2 against it so far. Army has a 0-1 record, with a powerful rushing attack averaging 280 yards per game but a struggling passing game (58% completion, 2 interceptions) and allowing 30 points per game on defense.
- Recent detailed head-to-head data is not provided in the sources, but Kansas State's home advantage and stronger season start suggest they hold the upper hand over Army. Army has not faced a team as strong as Kansas State this season.
- No explicit injury reports were found for either team in the provided sources, indicating both are likely near full strength for this game.
- The game will be played in pleasant weather conditions (~70ยฐF, no rain, low wind). Kansas State is benefiting from home field support, while Army is on the road for the first time this season, which may impact their performance negatively.
- Army is motivated to avoid an 0-2 start and prove themselves after a grueling double overtime win. Kansas State looks to gain momentum early in the season and cover the spread at home, making their motivation high as well.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights: 575, Kansas State Wildcats: -850 | Kansas State Wildcats | โ โ โ โ โ 90% |
| Spread | Army Black Knights: 17.5 -118, Kansas State Wildcats: -17.5 -102 | Kansas State Wildcats to cover the -17.5 spread | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -105 | Under 46.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas State Wildcats 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 17% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kansas State is strongly favored to win comfortably at home, likely covering the 17.5 point spread. Their balanced and high-output offense combined with home field advantage outweighs Army's strong rushing attack and motivation. A total score around the 46.5 points line is likely, with a modest lean towards the under considering defensive averages and Army's offensive struggles in the passing game.
Predicted Score: Kansas State Wildcats 34 – 13 Army Black Knights