Match Analysis: Kansas Jayhawks vs Kansas State Wildcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kansas
Game Overview
Kansas Jayhawks (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) host Kansas State Wildcats (3-4, 2-2 Big 12) in the Sunflower Showdown. Kansas is favored by 3 at home, reflecting a surprisingly close Big 12 contest between two evenly matched, middle-of-the-pack teams. Both have inconsistent recent form, but Kansas State has recovered from a tough start, with two wins in their last three games, while Kansas alternated wins and losses over their last six[1][2][3].
Key Factors to Consider
- Kansas: 32.4 PPG (45th NCAA), 263.3 passing YPG (41st), 155.0 rushing YPG (63rd), allowing 23.6 PPG (62nd), notable weakness in rush defense (119th NCAA)[1][2]. Kansas State: 29.4 PPG, 223.0 passing YPG, 143.6 rushing YPG, allowing 27.0 PPG, relatively balanced attack and defense[2].
- No specific H2H stats provided, but this is a heated rivalry game with the Governorβs Cup at stake, often unpredictable and high-scoring.
- No major injury news provided in available data.
- Rivalry game at Kansasβ home stadium, which can amplify volatility. No major weather concerns.
- Both teams are tied for 6th in the Big 12 and need a win to bolster bowl eligibility and in-state bragging rights. Expect full intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home -148, Away +124 | Kansas Jayhawks | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Kansas -3 -108, Kansas State +3 -112 | Kansas State Wildcats (+3) | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 56.5 -108, Under 56.5 -112 | Over 56.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 56.5 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 56.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A coin-flip game on paper, but Kansasβ explosive passing offense (led by Jalon Daniels: 18 TD, 2 INT) and home-field advantage in a rivalry spot give them a razor-thin edge, despite a poor rush defense. Kansas Stateβs recent momentum and more balanced attack could exploit that weakness, but their inconsistency on the road and in close games tips the scales slightly to Kansas.
Predicted Score: 34-31 Kansas Jayhawks