Match Analysis: Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Liberty Flames – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, Alabama
Game Overview
Liberty Flames (1-0) visit Jacksonville State Gamecocks (0-1) in a Conference USA matchup. Liberty enters off a close win marked by strong rushing offense and stout defense, especially in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville State also showed promise against a Big 12 opponent in a tight game but has struggled offensively, particularly in passing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liberty averages 28 points per game, with a balanced rushing (194 yards) and passing attack (197 yards). Defensively, they are strong, allowing just 7 points and limiting opponents effectively, especially in the 4th quarter. Jacksonville State averages a modest 10 points per game, with a stronger rushing game than passing but overall less production on offense.
- Limited recent direct matchups, but Jacksonville State has covered 6 of last 7 home conference games against similar opposition. Liberty has struggled ATS on the road against non-AP teams, failing to cover 5 of last 6.
- No major injuries reported impacting starting units for either team, suggesting both squads are near full strength.
- Jacksonville State has home-field advantage at AmFirst Stadium. Weather or other external factors do not appear significant.
- Liberty seeks its sixth consecutive September win against non-AP teams and to maintain momentum after a tight season-opening victory. Jacksonville State aims to bounce back after an opening loss with strong home support.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Jacksonville State +215, Liberty -265 | Liberty Flames | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Jacksonville State +6.5 -105, Liberty -6.5 -115 | Liberty Flames -6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 49.5 -108, Under 49.5 -112 | Under 49.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Liberty Flames -10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 49.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liberty Flames moneyline
Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 28, Jacksonville State 17