Match Analysis: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Game Overview
A critical AFC matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4). Chargers seek a fourth consecutive win to solidify playoff positioning, while Jaguars aim to bounce back from a recent blowout loss at Houston.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chargers are in strong form at 7-3, riding a three-game winning streak, especially sharp on the road (3-1 away). Jaguars hold a 5-4 record with some inconsistency, recently suffering a tough fourth-quarter collapse against Houston.
- Chargers favored historically when visiting by 3 points, winning about 62% of similar matchups since 2020 and performing slightly better ATS (+0.5 point cover on average).
- No major injuries reported for key starters on either team that would significantly impact the outcome. Both teams appear near full strength.
- Game played at Jacksonvilleβs home venue with typical weather and no unusual external conditions. Chargers travel well and are motivated by strong playoff push.
- Chargers motivated to maintain momentum and playoff seeding. Jaguars driven by home crowd and desire to recover from recent collapse, but psychological blow may reduce confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville: +130, Los Angeles: -155 | Los Angeles Chargers | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Jacksonville: +3 -118, Los Angeles: -3 -102 | Los Angeles Chargers -3 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 43.5 -115, Under: 43.5 -105 | Under 43.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 43.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles Chargers moneyline win
Predicted Score: Los Angeles Chargers 24 - Jacksonville Jaguars 17
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