Match Analysis: Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
Game Overview
The No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (2-0) host the Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0) in an intense in-state rivalry game, the Cy-Hawk Trophy at stake. Iowa State enters with a potent passing attack and solid defense, while Iowa features a strong rushing offense and a newly dynamic quarterback. The matchup is expected to be tightly contested, with the home field advantage slightly favoring Iowa State.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa State is undefeated with an efficient offense led by QB Rocco Becht (461 yards, 5 TDs in opener) and balanced defense. Iowa is 1-0 with a powerful run game (310 rushing yards in opener) and improved QB play from Mark Gronowski, offering a dual-threat style.
- Iowa leads the historical series 47-24 but recent meetings have been competitive. Three of the last five games were decided by a field goal or less, indicating a trend of close contests.
- No major injuries reported that significantly impact either team's key starters, enabling both squads to field near full-strength rosters.
- The game is at Jack Trice Stadium, which favors Iowa State due to the crowd and familiarity. Weather conditions are expected to be neutral with no extreme weather affecting gameplay.
- Both teams are highly motivated; Iowa State aims to continue their perfect start and prove their top-20 ranking, while Iowa wants to reassert dominance in this storied rivalry after a slow start last season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Iowa State -166, Iowa +140 | Iowa State | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Iowa State -3 -118, Iowa +3 -102 | Iowa State -3 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 41.5 -112, Under 41.5 -108 | Over 41.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 41.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 41.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa State to cover the -3 spread
Predicted Score: Iowa State 27 – Iowa 20