Match Analysis: Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Olympiastadion, Berlin
Game Overview
Indianapolis Colts (7-2) host Atlanta Falcons (3-5) in the NFL Berlin Series. Colts are strong favorites, with a 6.5-point spread and a high 48.5 total. Both teams have shown offensive firepower, but defensive inconsistencies and recent form point to a decisive Colts win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Colts are 7-2, atop the AFC, with a top-2 scoring offense and a defense that held Pittsburgh to 225 yards last week. Falcons are 3-5, having lost three straight, with a defense allowing 24+ points in 3 of last 5 games. Colts rank 7th in rushing, Falcons 23rd against the run.
- No recent H2H meetings, but Colts have dominated similar matchups this season, especially against weaker rush defenses.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Colts recently acquired top CB Sauce Gardner, significantly upgrading their secondary.
- Game in Berlin, neutral site. Travel and crowd effects are minimal, but Colts' recent momentum and roster upgrades give them an edge.
- Colts are fighting for AFC supremacy, while Falcons are out of playoff contention and have shown lack of competitive fire in recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -305, away: 245 | Indianapolis Colts | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home: -6.5, away: 6.5 | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | over: 48.5, under: 48.5 | Over 48.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 48.5 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Colts win decisively, covering the spread and pushing the game over the total due to their offensive strength and Falcons' defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: Colts 34 – Falcons 21