Match Analysis: Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Houston
Game Overview
The Houston Texans host the Denver Broncos in an anticipated Week 9 NFL matchup. Houston enters as a slight favorite with close spread odds, indicating a potentially tight and low-scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texans show stronger recent form with better offensive efficiency and a slightly improved defense compared to Denver, who have struggled on offense lately.
- Recent H2H matchups favor Houston, particularly at home, where they have held close or edged out Denver in recent seasons.
- Houston's key defensive starters are largely healthy, while Denver is dealing with some important offensive injuries limiting their passing game.
- Playing at home in Houston during early November favors Texans due to milder weather and crowd support; no major weather concerns forecasted.
- Texans have higher playoff motivation currently, fighting for a strong divisional position, while Broncos are in a rebuilding phase with less immediate pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Texans -130 / Denver Broncos +110 | Houston Texans | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Houston Texans -1.5 (-112) / Denver Broncos +1.5 (-108) | Houston Texans -1.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
| Over/under | Over 39.5 -115 / Under 39.5 -105 | Under 39.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Texans 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 39.5 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 39.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Houston Texans to win outright with a low scoring game expected under the total points line.
Predicted Score: Houston Texans 21 – Denver Broncos 16