Match Analysis: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Fresno State Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 3:59 AM UTC
- Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Game Overview
This Mountain West conference matchup features two teams with identical 3-1 records so far this season. Fresno State comes in as a slight favorite both on the moneyline and spread, while the Hawks are hosting the game in Hawaii. Both teams have shown solid offensive capabilities but Fresno State has the statistical edge and better ATS performance as favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State is 3-1 overall with a clean 3-1 record ATS including a 1-0 record as a favorite of 2.5 points or more, showing strong performance under pressure. Hawaii is also 3-1 but 0-1 ATS as underdogs of 2.5 or more points, showing less consistency when expected to be the underdog.
- Recent H2H data is limited but Fresno State generally has edged Hawaii in recent matchups, benefiting from stronger defense and more balanced offense. The teams have had close contests, but Fresno State's ability to cover short spreads has been superior.
- No major injuries reported for either team affecting key starters, so both squads will likely field their usual starters without significant handicaps.
- Hawaii is playing at home which provides some advantage due to travel fatigue for Fresno State and local crowd support. However, Fresno State's road performances have been stronger in recent seasons than Hawaii's home resilience.
- Both teams enter the game motivated with identical 3-1 starts, but Fresno State being the slight favorite has more to prove to maintain momentum and validate odds; Hawaii looks to use home advantage to upset the favorite.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fresno State -142, Hawaii +120 | Fresno State Bulldogs | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Fresno State -3 -105, Hawaii +3 -115 | Fresno State Bulldogs -3 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 47.5 -115, Under 47.5 -105 | Under 47.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 47.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State Bulldogs to win on the moneyline, cover the 3-point spread, and the game to finish under the total points line of 47.5.
Predicted Score: Fresno State 24 – Hawaii 17