Match Analysis: Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Edmonton Elks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON
Game Overview
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8-5) host Edmonton Elks (5-8) in a pivotal late-season CFL matchup. The Tiger-Cats are firmly favored due to stronger recent form, home advantage, and key player availability, while the Elks strive to upset as underdogs with a solid recent offensive showing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hamilton is 8-5 and playing at home with QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who leads a potent offense expected to capitalize against a 5-8 Edmonton team that has struggled but showed offensive promise in a close loss to Toronto.
- Historically, Hamilton has the edge over Edmonton in recent meetings. Last season and earlier in 2025, Hamilton often controlled matchups, leveraging their stronger defense and efficient offense.
- No major injuries reported for key players on either side. Both QBs, Bo Levi Mitchell (Hamilton) and Cody Fajardo (Edmonton), are fully available, keeping offenses at full strength.
- Home field advantage for Hamilton is significant at Tim Hortons Field. Weather conditions expected to be stable, neutral impact. Motivation is high on both sides as Hamilton chases playoff positioning while Edmonton fights for respectability.
- Hamilton looks to solidify playoff seeding; Edmonton aims to disrupt and salvage their season record. The Tiger-Cats' better form and need for a win give them motivational edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Hamilton: -245, Edmonton: +198 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Hamilton -5.5: -114, Edmonton +5.5: -106 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats -5.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 56.5: -115, Under 56.5: -105 | Under 56.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Hamilton Tiger-Cats -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 56.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 56.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hamilton Tiger-Cats to win straight up and cover the spread. Expect a moderately high-scoring game but stay under the total points line.
Predicted Score: Hamilton Tiger-Cats 31 – Edmonton Elks 22