Match Analysis: Georgia State Panthers vs Marshall Thundering Herd – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Game Overview
The Marshall Thundering Herd (4-5, 2-3 Sun Belt) travel to face the Georgia State Panthers (1-8, 0-5 Sun Belt) in a critical Sun Belt Conference matchup. Marshall seeks to get within one game of bowl eligibility after dropping consecutive contests to Coastal Carolina and James Madison, while Georgia State looks to secure just their second win of the season. The home team has won all three prior meetings between these programs, though Marshall holds a 2-1 advantage in the all-time series.
Key Factors to Consider
- Marshall enters as the significantly stronger team, averaging 34.1 points per game with a ground game averaging 211.1 yards per contest. The Thundering Herd rank 18th in rushing yards (206.5 per game) and have scored 30 total touchdowns (13 passing, 17 rushing). However, Marshall's defense ranks 119th in college football, allowing 32.8 points and 412.7 yards per game. Georgia State has been historically poor on offense, averaging just 113.6 rushing yards per game with only 275 yards from leading rusher Cameran Brown. The Panthers' defense is equally concerning, allowing 40.7 points and 451.7 yards per game, ranking among the worst in FBS. Marshall is 6-3 against the spread this season, while Georgia State is just 1-7 ATS.
- In their all-time series, Marshall leads 2-1, but Georgia State has won all three of the most recent matchups at home. This historical home-field advantage for the Panthers provides some intrigue despite their current record disparity.
- No significant injuries are reported in the available data for either team.
- Both teams are playing with postseason implications in mind. Marshall needs wins to reach bowl eligibility, while Georgia State desperately seeks any victories to improve their 1-8 record. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, and Marshall notably features National Interception Leader Boogie Trotter with 5 interceptions this season. Georgia State counters with senior wide receiver Ted Hurst, who ranks sixth nationally with 94.9 receiving yards per game.
- Marshall has higher motivation due to bowl eligibility implications and is looking to bounce back from consecutive losses. Georgia State, despite being heavy underdogs, plays at home where they have historically performed better against Marshall. The Panthers are facing a season that could become historically poor with an 0-9 start looming if they lose.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marshall -310 | Georgia State +250 | Marshall Thundering Herd Win | โ โ โ โ โ 76% |
| Spread | Marshall -7.5 (-110) | Georgia State +7.5 (-110) | Marshall -7.5 COVER | โ โ โ โ โ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 63.5 (-110) | Under 63.5 (-110) | UNDER 63.5 | โ โ โ โโ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marshall Thundering Herd -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 63.5 5% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 63.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marshall is favored to win this matchup decisively. The Thundering Herd's superior offensive firepower, particularly their ground game and overall scoring efficiency, should overwhelm a Georgia State defense that ranks among the worst in FBS. While Georgia State's home-field advantage and historical success at home against Marshall provides some uncertainty, Marshall's need to win for bowl positioning and their significant talent gap suggest they will prevail. Expect Marshall to win by a touchdown or more, likely in the 31-24 to 35-21 range based on both teams' scoring averages.
Predicted Score: Marshall 31, Georgia State 24