Match Analysis: Georgia Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Game Overview
The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs host the No. 10 Texas Longhorns in a pivotal late-season matchup at Sanford Stadium. Both teams are ranked and fighting for playoff positioning, with Georgia favored at home. The game features two strong defenses and high-stakes implications for the College Football Playoff race.
Key Factors to Consider
- Georgia enters the game with an 8-1 record, ranking 23rd in points allowed per game. Texas is 7-2, ranked 11th in points allowed. Both teams have shown resilience, but Georgia has won the last two head-to-head matchups, outscoring Texas 52-34 in those games. Texas has struggled to contain Georgia's rushing attack, which dominated in their October meeting (30-15).
- Georgia leads the recent series 2-1 since 2019, with wins in the 2024 regular season (30-15) and the 2024 SEC Championship (22-19 OT). Texas won the 2019 Sugar Bowl (28-21). Overall, Texas leads the all-time series 4-3, but Georgia has won the last two and holds a 2-game winning streak. The last three meetings have been decided by 10 points or less.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to be at full strength for this critical matchup.
- This is the first time Texas has played at Sanford Stadium ('between the hedges'). Georgia's home-field advantage is significant, with a strong fan base and recent success in high-pressure games. Weather is expected to be mild, with no adverse conditions forecasted.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff spots. Georgia is aiming to solidify its position as a top-5 team, while Texas needs a win to remain in the playoff conversation. The rivalry has intensified with three meetings in the last two years, adding extra motivation for both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs: -225, Texas Longhorns: 185 | Georgia Bulldogs | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs: -6 -110, Texas Longhorns: 6 -110 | Georgia Bulldogs -6 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 48.5 -105, Under: 48.5 -115 | Under 48.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 31% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Georgia is favored to win, but Texas has shown the ability to keep games close. The Bulldogs' recent dominance in the series, combined with home-field advantage and strong defensive rankings, gives them the edge. However, Texas' defense is also elite, and the game is likely to be low-scoring and tightly contested.
Predicted Score: Georgia 24, Texas 20