Match Analysis: Fresno State Bulldogs vs Wyoming Cowboys – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 3:30 AM UTC
- Location: Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, California
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3) host the Wyoming Cowboys (4-5) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Fresno State enters as a moderate favorite with a strong defense, particularly in passing defense, and recent solid home performances. Wyoming struggles on the road and in California, with a below .500 record and issues in both offense and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State is 4-1 in their last five games, showcasing a balanced offense averaging over 48 points total per game at home, and holding a top-20 ranked pass defense nationally. Wyoming is 4-5 overall with a 1-3 road record, averaging 19.4 points per game offensively, struggling with turnovers and penalties.
- Fresno State has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings with Wyoming and has won the first half in six of their last seven home games against conference opponents. Wyoming has lost its last nine games in California and failed to cover the spread in six of seven recent California games.
- No significant reported injuries impacting key starters for either team are currently noted, keeping lineups largely intact.
- Game played at Fresno State’s home stadium with typical weather around 56°F and slight rain, which may favor a controlled, lower-scoring game.
- Fresno State aims to secure bowl eligibility and improve conference standing, motivated by recent decisive wins. Wyoming seeks to end a losing streak on the road and finish strong after an open week, but motivation is tempered by recent away struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -174 | Fresno State | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | -115 | Fresno State -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | -110 | Over 40.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 40.5 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 40.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State to win straight up on the moneyline, cover the -3.5 spread, and the game to go over the 40.5 point total.
Predicted Score: Fresno State 27 – Wyoming 17
