Match Analysis: Fresno State Bulldogs vs Southern University Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Valley Children's Stadium
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs host the Southern University Jaguars in a Week 3 NCAA football matchup. Fresno State is a strong favorite at home with a 2-1 start, while Southern is struggling with a 1-2 record and poor road form. The Bulldogs' defense and consistent home success heavily favor them.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State has a powerful offense and rank well defensively, with a strong record at home in September, having won 9 of their last 10 such games. Southern is 0-18 on the road and 0-14 in September games, showing consistent struggles away from home.
- Fresno State decisively beat Southern 42-14 earlier in the 2025 season, demonstrating superiority and confidence going into this rematch.
- Fresno State's tight end B. Lium is questionable with an undisclosed injury, which may slightly impact red-zone efficiency but is unlikely to change the dominant outlook.
- No significant external factors reported. Game is at Fresno State's home stadium with typical conditions favorable for the Bulldogs.
- Fresno State is motivated to maintain home dominance and improve to 3-1, while Southern aims to break their poor road stretch though likely faces a difficult task against a superior opponent.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fresno State -3500, Southern +1200 | Fresno State | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | Fresno State -35.5 -110, Southern +35.5 -110 | Fresno State -35.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 48.5 -110, Under 48.5 -110 | Under 48.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Home 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 48.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State to cover the -35.5 spread
Predicted Score: Fresno State 42 – Southern 7