Match Analysis: Fresno State Bulldogs vs San Diego State Aztecs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno, California
Game Overview
The San Diego State Aztecs (5-1) visit the Fresno State Bulldogs (5-2) in a key Mountain West Conference matchup. San Diego State is favored by 3 points and favored on the moneyline with odds at -148 compared to Fresno State’s +124. The total points over/under is set at 47.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State has a strong defense, ranking 5th nationally in points allowed (12.2 per game) and limiting opponents to low passing and rushing yards. Fresno State has been solid with a 5-1 recent SU streak and tends to push games over 47.5 points, having gone over in 4 of their last 6 contests.
- Recent H2H data is limited but the current market favors San Diego State by 3 points, reflecting slight but consistent superiority especially defensively.
- No critical injury information was available for either team at the time of analysis, suggesting stable lineups.
- Fresno State has home-field advantage, playing in Valley Children’s Stadium, which may slightly boost their performance.
- Both teams are motivated to maintain strong conference standing; San Diego State aims to preserve an undefeated or near-undefeated record while Fresno State seeks to assert dominance at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs: +124, San Diego State Aztecs: -148 | San Diego State Aztecs | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +3: -115, San Diego State Aztecs -3: -105 | San Diego State Aztecs -3 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 47.5: -108, Under 47.5: -112 | Over 47.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 47.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 47.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on San Diego State moneyline, San Diego State -3 spread, and total over 47.5 points
Predicted Score: San Diego State Aztecs 27 – Fresno State Bulldogs 21