Match Analysis: Florida Gators vs Mississippi State Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Florida
Game Overview
Florida Gators (2-4, 1-2 SEC) host Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-2, 0-2 SEC) in a crucial SEC matchup. Florida is favored on the moneyline and spread with the live odds reflecting this. Both teams come off losses to Texas A&M and feature contrasting recent records.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mississippi State holds a better overall record (4-2) versus Floridaβs 2-4, but both lost their recent games to Texas A&M. Floridaβs offense has been inconsistent, whereas Mississippi Stateβs defense has struggled in SEC play.
- Florida won the previous meeting 45-28 at Mississippi Stateβs home. Historically, Florida has had the edge in this matchup.
- No major injury updates are available; key players appear healthy for both sides, maintaining standard team strength.
- Game at Floridaβs home field with crowd advantage and typical SEC weather conditions favoring the home team.
- Florida needs this win to improve its disappointing season and remain competitive in the SEC, providing strong motivation. Mississippi State looks to stay unbeaten in non-conference and build momentum in SEC play.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Florida Gators: -320, Mississippi State Bulldogs: 260 | Florida Gators | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Florida Gators: -9.5 -108, Mississippi State Bulldogs: +9.5 -112 | Florida Gators -9.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 50.5: -115, Under 50.5: -105 | Under 50.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Florida Gators -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 50.5 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Florida Gators to win outright (moneyline), cover the -9.5 spread, and the game to go under 50.5 points.
Predicted Score: Florida Gators 28 – Mississippi State Bulldogs 17