Match Analysis: Edmonton Elks vs Ottawa Redblacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-06
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Play Alberta Field at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
Game Overview
The Edmonton Elks host the Ottawa Redblacks in a Week 5 CFL matchup, with kickoff at 7:00 PM ET (23:00 UTC). Both teams are struggling this season; Edmonton is 0-3 seeking their first win, while Ottawa holds a 1-3 record. This game features two last-place division teams facing off in Edmonton, with high stakes to break early losing streaks.
Key Factors to Consider
- Edmonton Elks have lost all three games this season, including a 36-23 defeat in Winnipeg last week. Ottawa Redblacks have a 1-3 record, coming off a 29-16 loss at home to Toronto. Both teams have poor recent performance against the spread with Ottawa 2-9 ATS in last 11 games and Edmonton 1-7 ATS in last eight, showing inconsistency and low confidence levels for bettors.
- Ottawa won both head-to-head meetings against Edmonton last season, including a win as a four-point underdog and covering as a one-point favorite. Edmonton has lost 15 of their last 20 home games, while Ottawa is 1-7 SU in their last eight road games, indicating a generally even but slightly negative historical matchup for both.
- No specific injury updates available from the latest reports for either team, indicating key players likely to be available.
- The game day will include the Elks' themed Hard Hat Huddle event, potentially boosting home crowd energy. Weather and field conditions are not reported to be adverse. Broadcast will be on TSN/RDS2 in Canada and CBS Sports in the U.S. with international streaming on CFL+, ensuring wide viewership.
- Both teams are motivated to break losing streaks; Edmonton seeks their first win of the season at home, while Ottawa aims to improve their 1-3 record. The Elks' home fans and special event could provide an emotional boost, but Ottawa’s status as slight favorites reflects their perceived edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Edmonton Elks: +108, Ottawa Redblacks: -134 | Ottawa Redblacks | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Edmonton Elks: +1.5 -112, Ottawa Redblacks: -1.5 -112 | Ottawa Redblacks -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 52.5 -112, Under: 52.5 -112 | Under 52.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Ottawa Redblacks -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 52.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ottawa Redblacks are favored to win narrowly based on recent form, historical head-to-head advantage, and betting market odds. However, Edmonton’s home advantage and motivation to avoid a 0-4 start suggest a close game.
Predicted Score: Ottawa Redblacks 27 – Edmonton Elks 24