Match Analysis: Edmonton Elks vs Calgary Stampeders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB
Game Overview
The Calgary Stampeders (8-3) visit the Edmonton Elks (4-7) for a pivotal CFL matchup. Calgary is favored by 6 points and the total over/under is set near 50.5. Both teams have quarterbacks with proven experience: Vernon Adams Jr. for Calgary and Cody Fajardo for Edmonton. Edmonton has shown defensive improvement and recent offensive uptick under Fajardo, while Calgary enters with strong form and a recent decisive win over Edmonton.
Key Factors to Consider
- Calgary holds a superior 8-3 record versus Edmonton's 4-7. Calgary has been dominant overall but Edmonton has improved from an early-season 1-6 start, winning their last three contests with Fajardo at QB and a defense allowing 22 points or fewer in those games.
- Calgary won the last meeting convincingly 28-7, but Edmonton has won four of the last five head-to-head matchups more recently, showing competitiveness in this rivalry.
- No significant injuries reported for starting QBs Vernon Adams Jr. (Calgary) and Cody Fajardo (Edmonton). Both teams appear to have their key playmakers available.
- The gameβs location in Edmonton could favor the home team, who have motivation to defend home turf. Weather conditions forecast appears stable with no listed impact. Division rivalry enhances intensity.
- Edmonton is motivated to continue their resurgence and avoid a losing season, while Calgary aims to consolidate their playoff positioning with a dominant road win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders: -250, Edmonton Elks: +205 | Calgary Stampeders | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Calgary Stampeders -6: -108, Edmonton Elks +6: -112 | Calgary Stampeders -6 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 50.5: -105, Under 50.5: -115 | Under 50.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 50.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Calgary Stampeders moneyline win
Predicted Score: Calgary Stampeders 27 – Edmonton Elks 20