Match Analysis: East Carolina Pirates vs Memphis Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Bagwell Field at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Game Overview
The East Carolina Pirates (6-3) host the Memphis Tigers (8-2) in a highly competitive AAC matchup featuring East Carolina's strong 15th-ranked scoring defense versus Memphis's 15th-ranked scoring offense. The Pirates are slight favorites by 2.5 points at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- East Carolina has a solid defense allowing 17.3 PPG, while Memphis averages 37.1 PPG on a top-15 offense. East Carolina is 5-4 ATS and Memphis 8-2 straight up so far.
- Recent meetings have been competitive, with close scorelines expected. Currently, East Carolina benefits from home advantage with slight edge in ATS records.
- No significant injuries reported for either team, suggesting both squads are near full strength.
- Game is at East Carolinaβs home field with mild weather (67F, no rain), which favors the home team's comfort. Memphis is slightly underdog in a hostile environment.
- Memphis seeks to maintain their high ranking and continue their strong season, while East Carolina looks to leverage home advantage to upset a higher-ranked opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Carolina -142, Memphis +120 | East Carolina | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | East Carolina -2.5 -115, Memphis +2.5 -105 | Memphis +2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 58.5 -110, Under 58.5 -110 | Under 58.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 58.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 58.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
East Carolina to win narrowly, covering the spread with a moderately lower combined score under the total line.
Predicted Score: East Carolina 28, Memphis 24