Match Analysis: East Carolina Pirates vs Memphis Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Bagwell Field at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, North Carolina
Game Overview
The East Carolina Pirates (6-3) host the Memphis Tigers (8-2) in an American Athletic Conference matchup. East Carolina enters as a slight favorite despite Memphis being ranked higher nationally. This contest features a stark contrast in offensive and defensive capabilities, with Memphis ranking 8th in scoring offense (37.1 PPG) while East Carolina boasts the 15th-ranked scoring defense (17.3 PPG). Conversely, East Carolina's offense ranks 30th (33.9 PPG) compared to Memphis's 53rd-ranked defense (21.1 PPG). The Pirates defeated Charlotte 48-22 in their most recent game, while the Tigers suffered a 38-32 loss to Tulane.
Key Factors to Consider
- East Carolina has compiled a 5-4 record against the spread this season with strong home splits (2-3 at home ATS). Memphis has been more consistent, covering the spread 8 times in 10 matchups. The Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 3-0 ATS in road games. Offensively, Memphis has a significant advantage in scoring efficiency and red zone execution (97.6% compared to East Carolina's 78.7%), while East Carolina's defense excels at forcing turnovers (13 vs Memphis's 17). The key matchup centers on East Carolina's elite defense against Memphis's potent offense.
- Specific historical head-to-head data is not provided in the search results. However, the betting patterns suggest competitive balance, with public money split 54% for East Carolina and 46% for Memphis, indicating sharp action on both sides.
- No current injury reports are available from the provided sources for either team.
- Weather conditions show 67ยฐF with 0% chance of rain and minimal wind in Greenville, providing ideal playing conditions that favor neither team specifically. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU, ensuring wide viewership.
- Memphis enters as a higher-ranked team with an 8-2 record seeking consistency after their loss to Tulane, while East Carolina defends home field with momentum from a dominant win over Charlotte. East Carolina's strong recent ATS performance (4-1 in last 5 games) suggests confidence, while Memphis's overall season cover rate (80%) indicates resilience.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Carolina -142 | Memphis +120 | East Carolina Pirates | โ โ โ โโ 59% |
| Spread | East Carolina -2.5 (-115) | Memphis +2.5 (-105) | Memphis Tigers +2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 58.5 -2% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: East Carolina Pirates at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
East Carolina is favored to win this matchup, leveraging their elite scoring defense and home field advantage. However, Memphis's explosive offensive capability and superior red zone efficiency present significant scoring potential. The game should remain competitive with East Carolina's defensive prowess limiting Memphis's scoring opportunities. The predicted outcome favors a close contest with East Carolina prevailing, though the spread remains tight enough for serious upset consideration.
Predicted Score: East Carolina 28, Memphis 26