Match Analysis: East Carolina Pirates vs Army Black Knights – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-25
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville
Game Overview
The East Carolina Pirates, with a 2-2 record, host the Army Black Knights, who are 1-2 this season. East Carolina is favored at home with strong defensive metrics and demonstrated ability to control the line of scrimmage, while Army runs a triple option offense that historically challenges East Carolina's defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- East Carolina has posted balanced 2-2 results but excelled against the spread (3-1) including on the road. Army is 1-2 overall, with less pass rush and produces less offensive havoc compared to East Carolina.
- East Carolina won both meetings last season against Army straight up and against the spread. Historically, East Carolina's defense has contained Army's triple option effectively.
- No major injuries reported for either side that would impact starting lineups or game plans significantly.
- Game played at East Carolinaβs home venue with mild weather expected (81Β°F, low chance of rain). Army travels on short rest after an overtime loss, possibly disadvantaging preparation and recovery.
- East Carolina seeks to capitalize on home advantage and extend a positive ATS trend. Army aims to leverage their specialty offense and situational advantage of short preparation time which can catch defenses off guard.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | East Carolina -196 / Army +162 | East Carolina | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | East Carolina -4.5 (-114) / Army +4.5 (-106) | East Carolina -4.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 52.5 (-110) / Under 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 52.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
East Carolina to win outright on moneyline and cover the spread. The game total expected slightly under the 52.5 points line given East Carolinaβs strong defense and Armyβs traditionally run-heavy offense limiting explosiveness.
Predicted Score: East Carolina 24 – Army 17