Match Analysis: Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham
Game Overview
NC State Wolfpack (3-0) face Duke Blue Devils (1-2) at Duke's home field. NC State is undefeated and showing strong form, while Duke struggles with a losing record and poor performance against the spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- NC State is undefeated (3-0) with strong recent form, while Duke is 1-2 overall and 0-3 ATS (against the spread) in recent games, indicating struggles especially on offense and defense consistency.
- Recent H2H trends favor NC State, who have been competitive on the road and against Dukeβs defensive schemes. Dukeβs poor ATS record against NC State reduces confidence in their ability to cover the spread.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting key positions, suggesting both teams will field near full strength.
- Game starts at 8pm local with mild weather (84Β°F), no rain expected and light wind, neutral external conditions that should not affect play significantly.
- NC Stateβs undefeated record and strong ACC start provide better motivation momentum compared to Dukeβs struggling 1-2 start, compounded by home crowd pressure on Duke.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Duke -162, NC State +136 | NC State Wolfpack | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Duke -3.5 -105, NC State +3.5 -115 | NC State +3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 57.5 -112, Under 57.5 -108 | Over 57.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack 37% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 57.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: NC State Wolfpack at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
NC State to win outright on moneyline, Duke to fail to cover the spread, and total points to go over the 57.5 line.
Predicted Score: NC State 30 – Duke 27