Match Analysis: Duke Blue Devils vs Illinois Fighting Illini – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
Game Overview
Non-conference Week 2 matchup featuring Duke Blue Devils hosting Illinois Fighting Illini. Both teams are 1-0 to open the season, with Illinois favored as a slight road favorite. Key matchup revolves around quarterbacks and defense strength.
Key Factors to Consider
- Illinois is coming off a dominant 1-0 start with a strong defense ranked around 60th in opponent yards per play returning most starters, emphasizing a solid secondary. Duke is also 1-0 with a defense ranked in the top 30 for opponent yards and sack rate. Both teams show efficient quarterbacks and balanced play.
- Limited recent matchups with small spreads often favoring Illinois. Previous data indicates close games but Illinois generally edges Duke in betting markets.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Both squads appear near full strength and motivated to prove early-season dominance.
- Game played at Dukeβs home stadium, which can provide a home crowd edge. Weather and travel conditions not expected to impact significantly.
- Illinois seeks to solidify College Football Playoff credentials as preseason sleepers, while Duke aims to prove its competitiveness against a Big Ten opponent, creating a motivated contest for both.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Duke +128, Illinois -154 | Duke Blue Devils | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Duke +3.5 (-122), Illinois -3.5 (100) | Duke +3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 49.5 -110, Under 49.5 -110 | Under 49.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 49.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Duke Blue Devils at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Duke Blue Devils to win outright on the moneyline, cover the spread, and for the total points to go under 49.5.
Predicted Score: Duke 24 – Illinois 21