Match Analysis: Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Game Overview
The Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North divisional Thanksgiving Day game at Ford Field. Both teams are battling for key playoff positioning, with the Lions slightly favored at home. The Lions have a 7-4 record and a strong home advantage, while the Packers stand at 7-3-1 after winning their first matchup this season against Detroit 27-13 on September 7, 2025.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Lions are 7-4 overall and hold a 4-1 home record this season, showing strong ground game prospects. Green Bay Packers have a 7-3-1 mark, with a recent resurgence aided by fresh defensive additions. The Lions average 326 points for and allow 243 points against, while the Packers have 263 points for and 202 against. Both teams show competitive balance but differing strengths in offense and defense.
- In the first meeting of the season on September 7, the Packers won convincingly 27-13 at Green Bay. Historically, the Lions perform well at Ford Field, holding a 4-1 home record this season. The NFC North rivalry remains tight with fluctuating dominance home and away.
- Current injury reports are limited in the available data; however, no major injury concerns for key offensive or defensive players of either team have been noted close to game day, suggesting both teams should be near full strength.
- The game is played indoors at Ford Field, negating weather as a factor. Thanksgiving Day atmosphere and national broadcast may increase pressure, but the Lions have historically risen to the occasion, aiming for a second consecutive Thanksgiving victory.
- Detroit Lions are motivated to claim a key divisional win and improve their standing, especially at home. The Packers aim to maintain their early season momentum and solidify their position in the NFC North. Both teams have playoff aspirations fueling competitive intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions: -142, Green Bay Packers: 120 | Detroit Lions | โ โ โ โโ 62% |
| Spread | Detroit Lions: -2.5 -112, Green Bay Packers: 2.5 -108 | Detroit Lions to cover -2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 48.5 -115, Under: 48.5 -105 | Over 48.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 48.5 3% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Detroit Lions at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Detroit Lions are predicted to win a close contest, leveraging home field advantage and a strong running game to edge the Green Bay Packers. The matchup is expected to be competitive but favors the Lions by a small margin.
Predicted Score: Detroit Lions 27 – Green Bay Packers 23