Match Analysis: Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Game Overview
The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears both enter Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season with 0-1 records, facing off at Ford Field. The Lions are favored by 6 points with a total of 46.5 points expected. Detroit has shown struggles early with coordinator changes impacting performance and offensive line issues. Chicago showed a second-half offensive stall in their opener but integrates a new scheme under Ben Johnson. Historical trends show Lions as favorites often struggle in home openers, but Detroit won both matchups last season and dominates statistical efficiency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Lions have a stronger overall offensive profile from last season, led by Jared Goff (72.4% comp., 4,629 yds, 37 TDs). However, their Week 1 start was poor and lacking competitiveness. Chicago Bears showed inconsistencies, especially in offense in the second half, but may improve with new offensive coordination. Recent form favors Lions marginally despite both teams being 0-1.
- Detroit Lions won both meetings against Chicago Bears last season and have covered the spread in over 60% of simulated matchups based on models. Historically, underdogs have won six of Detroit's last nine Week 2 games, though Lions have recently struggled as home favorites in openers.
- Chicago Bears have some question marks with LB T.J. Edwards doubtful (hamstring), and DB Jaylon Johnson and RB Roschon Johnson questionable. Detroit has no major injury reports impacting key starters, improving their reliability advantage.
- Game played at Detroitβs home stadium Ford Field with a 6-point Lions favorite spread, suggesting public and bookmaker expectations favor the Lions. Lions' offensive line issues and defensive coordinator changes could affect overall performance. Betting percentages heavily favor Lions moneyline (60%) from public.
- Both teams are motivated to bounce back from opening losses. Detroit will seek redemption and continuity after offseason changes, aiming to assert NFC North dominance; Chicago Bears want to prove they can overcome stagnation and become competitive under new coordination.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Lions -278, Chicago Bears +225 | Detroit Lions | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Detroit Lions -6 -110, Chicago Bears +6 -110 | Detroit Lions -6 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 46.5 -112, Under 46.5 -108 | Under 46.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Lions -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 46.5 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Lions to cover the -6 spread and win outright, with the total points going under 46.5
Predicted Score: Detroit Lions 24 – Chicago Bears 14