Match Analysis: Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Game Overview
This Thanksgiving Day matchup features the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at AT&T Stadium. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, with the Chiefs holding a slight edge in the standings. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both offenses capable of putting up points. The Chiefs are favored on the road, but the Cowboys have a strong home record and the added motivation of playing on a national holiday.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Chiefs enter the game with a 6-5 record, 1-4 on the road. They have shown resilience, bouncing back from losses with wins, but their away record is concerning. The Cowboys are 5-5-1, 3-1-1 at home. They have been inconsistent, but their home form is solid, and they have won their last two games. Both teams have strong offenses, but the Chiefs have a slight edge in points scored and allowed.
- The Chiefs and Cowboys have a long history, with the Chiefs holding a slight edge in recent matchups. The Chiefs won the last meeting, but the Cowboys have won two of the last three. The series is competitive, with both teams capable of winning on any given day.
- Both teams have key players dealing with injuries. The Chiefs are missing their starting left tackle, which could impact their offensive line. The Cowboys are missing their starting cornerback, which could be a problem against the Chiefs' passing attack. Both teams are expected to be at near full strength, but the injuries could be a factor.
- The game is being played on Thanksgiving Day, which could be a factor for both teams. The Cowboys are used to playing on Thanksgiving, but the Chiefs are not. The crowd will be heavily in favor of the Cowboys, which could be a factor. The weather is expected to be mild, with no major issues expected.
- Both teams are in the playoff race, with the Chiefs holding a slight edge. The Chiefs are motivated to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Cowboys are motivated to stay in contention. The Cowboys also have the added motivation of playing on Thanksgiving, which could be a factor.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys: 150, Kansas City Chiefs: -180 | Kansas City Chiefs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys: 3.5 -115, Kansas City Chiefs: -3.5 -105 | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 52.5 -110, Under: 52.5 -110 | Over | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 52.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Chiefs are favored to win, but the Cowboys have a strong home record and the added motivation of playing on Thanksgiving. The game is expected to be close, with the Chiefs winning by a small margin. The over is likely, with both teams capable of putting up points.
Predicted Score: Kansas City Chiefs 28, Dallas Cowboys 24
