Match Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Paycor Stadium
Game Overview
The Chicago Bears visit the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season. The Bears hold a slight edge in recent form and team motivation with a 4-3 record versus the Bengals' 3-5. Both teams are contesting for momentum mid-season, with the Bears favored on the moneyline and spread despite playing on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Bears have shown more consistency with a 4-3 record and are emerging as a playoff contender led by rookie QB Caleb Williams and key offensive weapons like D'Andre Swift and D.J. Moore. The Bengals (3-5) have struggled recently, going 1-4 in their last five games and have a weaker home ATS record.
- Recent head-to-head simulations and expert models give the Bears a 59% chance of winning straight up against the Bengals, with a predicted score near Bears 26 – Bengals 23. Spread betting models also favor the Bears to cover the -2.5 point spread with about 56% probability.
- The Bears have some key questionable players including TE Cole Kmet (back) and DB Jaylon Johnson (calf), with WR Luther Burden out due to concussion. The Bengals have no major injury news highlighted, implying a full-strength roster.
- The game is in Cincinnati, which typically favors the Bengals; however, their poor form at home in recent games and the Bears' strong motivation limits home field advantage impact. There is little indication of adverse weather or other external effects.
- The Bears are motivated to solidify playoff positioning with a 4-3 record, while the Bengals, with a losing 3-5 record, look to stop a losing trend and regain momentum. Bears' offensive progression and coaching upgrade also create higher incentive levels.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CHI -148, CIN +124 | Chicago Bears | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | CHI -2.5 (-115), CIN +2.5 (-105) | Chicago Bears -2.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
| Over/under | Over 51.5 (-105), Under 51.5 (-115) | Under 51.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 51.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
For moneyline, back the Chicago Bears to win outright given their superior recent form, offensive weapons, and coaching advantages on the road. For the spread, Bears -2.5 is the best single pick as models give them better than 50% chance to cover. Total points are predicted to go under 51.5 due to Bengals' recent defensive improvements and moderate scoring pace from both teams.
Predicted Score: Chicago Bears 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 23