Match Analysis: Cincinnati Bearcats vs Arizona Wildcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) host the Arizona Wildcats (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) in a pivotal conference matchup with Cincinnati eyeing a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. Cincinnati boasts a strong home record, having won five straight at home and seven of their last eight overall. Arizona, who recently became bowl eligible, has shown resilience on the road and is noted for an up-tempo offense but a middling defense. The Bears rank high nationally in rushing offense and points per game, while Arizonaโs offense ranks moderate nationally and their defense is comparatively weaker.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cincinnati ranks 9th nationally in rushing and 34th in points per game, with a high-powered offense leveraging strong run and pass balance. Arizona ranks 51st in rushing, 43rd in passing, but only 89th in red zone offense and 92nd nationally in sacks allowed, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. Cincinnati's offense is notably more potent and balanced, while Arizona relies on tempo to compensate.
- Recent matchups have favored Cincinnati especially at home where they are on a five-game win streak. Arizona has struggled to secure home wins against top competition, and Cincinnati has solid Big 12 positioning controlling its own destiny for the championship.
- Key injury is Cincinnati RB Evan Pryor listed as questionable, which could impact Cincinnati's rushing attack. No major injuries reported for Arizona that significantly impact their offensive or defensive capabilities.
- Weather and venue favor Cincinnati playing at Nippert Stadium with likely a noon local kickoff affecting Arizonaโs west coast team comfort level. Public betting heavily favors Cincinnati, but sharps show value with Arizona, reflected in line stability and moneyline odds.
- Cincinnati is highly motivated to secure a Big 12 Championship berth and maintain their home winning streak. Arizona plays with bowl eligibility secured, which may reduce pressure but they look to spoil Cincinnatiโs aspirations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats: 184, Cincinnati Bearcats: -220 | Cincinnati Bearcats | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats: 6.5 -115, Cincinnati Bearcats: -6.5 -105 | Cincinnati Bearcats -6.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 56.5 -110, Under: 56.5 -110 | Over 56.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 56.5 15% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 56.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Taking into account Cincinnatiโs superior home performance, balanced and highly ranked offense, and Arizonaโs defensive shortcomings, Cincinnati is predicted to win by covering the spread of -6.5. The game is expected to be high scoring given both teamsโ recent offensive outputs.
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 38 – Arizona 23