Match Analysis: Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Game Overview
The Chicago Bears (7-3) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) in a key NFL matchup featuring two division leaders. The Bears lead the NFC North, while the Steelers lead the AFC North. Both teams have shown competitive performances throughout the season, making this a pivotal game for playoff positioning.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chicago Bears hold a 7-3 record with strong home performance (3-1) and have averaged 258 points for and 264 against, indicating a high-scoring, competitive style. Pittsburgh Steelers stand at 6-4 overall and 2-2 on the road, with 246 points for and 232 against, reflecting a balanced offense and defense. Recent matches show Bears winning against Minnesota, and Steelers with key wins in the AFC North.
- Recent head-to-head data between these teams is limited for 2025, but historically, matchups at Soldier Field tend to be tightly contested. Both teams have similar win percentages this season, setting up a close contest.
- Quarterback status for the Bears is uncertain due to potential issues with Aaron Rodgers, which could affect offensive stability. No major injury reports currently update the Steelers roster, suggesting they may have an edge in full squad availability.
- Playing at Soldier Field gives Chicago a home-field advantage, including fan support and familiar conditions. Weather conditions in Chicago late November may impact game pace, potentially favoring strong defensive play. No other significant external factors like travel issues or extreme weather are currently evident.
- Both teams are motivated as division leaders aiming for playoff advantages. The Bears' stronger record and home advantage add motivation, while Steelers seek to assert dominance as AFC North leaders and improve their road record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears: -148, Pittsburgh Steelers: 124 | Chicago Bears win | โ โ โ โโ 68% |
| Spread | Chicago Bears: -2.5 (-115), Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.5 (-105) | Bears -2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 45.5: -110, Under 45.5: -110 | Over 45.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 45.5 3% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 45.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Bears are favored to win, primarily leveraging home advantage, slightly better record, and higher scoring offense. The uncertain condition of the Bears' quarterback slightly tempers confidence but does not shift the overall prediction significantly in the Steelersโ favor.
Predicted Score: Chicago Bears 26 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20