Match Analysis: Charlotte 49ers vs UTSA Roadrunners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Game Overview
The Charlotte 49ers (1-8) host the UTSA Roadrunners (4-5) in a matchup where UTSA enters as a strong favorite. UTSA's more balanced and effective offense contrasts with Charlotte's struggling season. The game features a significant point spread and a total expected score around 59.5-60.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- UTSA holds a 4-5 record but has shown stronger offensive output and better efficiency, averaging about 59-60 points total per game location, with an implied score contribution around 35 points. Charlotte struggles with a 1-8 record, weaker offense and defense, and poor overall efficiency.
- Limited recent direct data, but general historical performance favors UTSA, consistent with current betting lines showing UTSA as a heavy favorite by about 18.5 points.
- Charlotte reports several undisclosed and lower body injuries including key WRs and QB Conner Harrell with a leg injury; UTSA's injury reports are not prominently noted, suggesting fewer impact injuries.
- Game played at Charlotte's home stadium with mild weather (69ยฐF, no rain, light 7 mph wind). Public betting favors Charlotte with 70% of bets but sharp money aligns with UTSA's heavy odds advantage.
- UTSA aims to improve their winning chances late in the season, having a significantly better season record and momentum. Charlotte seeks an upset to break a poor season trend, likely increasing their defensive and offensive urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charlotte_49ers: +750, UTSA_Roadrunners: -1200 | UTSA Roadrunners win | โ โ โ โ โ 90% |
| Spread | Charlotte_49ers: +18.5 -110, UTSA_Roadrunners: -18.5 -110 | UTSA Roadrunners cover -18.5 spread | โ โ โ โ โ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 59.5 -110, Under: 59.5 -110 | Under 59.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 59.5 24% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 59.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UTSA Roadrunners are predicted to win comfortably, covering the large 18.5-point spread. The under is favored given recent game totals and balanced offensive-defensive factors.
Predicted Score: UTSA Roadrunners 38 – Charlotte 49ers 17