Match Analysis: Central Michigan Chippewas vs Wagner Seahawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan
Game Overview
The match features the Central Michigan Chippewas hosting the Wagner Seahawks at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Central Michigan enters with a 1-2 record, averaging around 12 points per game but allowing 40.7 points against. Wagner Seahawks are winless at 0-3, struggling offensively with 12.3 points per game and allowing an average of 32.7 points. Both teams have significant recent performance struggles, with Central Michigan 2-8 in their last 10 games and Wagner 0-20 in their last 20 games overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Central Michigan has shown offensive struggles but moderate defensive lapses. Wagner has been less competitive with low scoring and multiple interceptions by QB Jack Stevens. Central Michigan lost its QB Jadyn Glasser for the season, which heavily impacts their offensive potential. Wagner's backup QB Jack Stevens has yet to find rhythm, and their defense struggles to contain opponents.
- There are limited recent head-to-head records available but historically, Central Michigan holds a significant advantage over Wagner, with Wagner going 0-20 in their last 20 games overall and Central Michigan's poor but better recent results.
- Central Michigan's key injury includes QB Jadyn Glasser out for the remainder of the season. Joe Labas, another QB, had a poor recent performance. Wagner does not have major injuries reported but their QB Jack Stevens has struggled with multiple interceptions.
- Weather conditions are mild with 73ยฐF, 2% chance of rain, and light wind, unlikely to significantly affect game play. The venue is Central Michigan's home stadium, providing home field advantage.
- Central Michigan looks to rebound from recent losses and underperformance at home; Wagner seeks its first win of the season amid a difficult start, potentially motivating an upset attempt though overall morale could be low given current form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas: -10000, Wagner Seahawks: 2500 | Central Michigan Chippewas to win | โ โ โ โ โ 95% |
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas: -28.5 -110, Wagner Seahawks: 28.5 -110 | Central Michigan to cover -28.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 45.5 -110, Under: 45.5 -110 | Under 45.5 total points | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 45.5 34% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 45.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Central Michigan is heavily favored due to superior talent, home advantage and Wagner's poor season start, despite their QB injury. The confidence in a Central Michigan win is high given the spread and moneyline odds.
Predicted Score: Central Michigan Chippewas 31 – Wagner Seahawks 10