Match Analysis: Central Michigan Chippewas vs UMass Minutemen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan
Game Overview
Central Michigan Chippewas (4-3, 2-1 MAC) host the struggling UMass Minutemen (0-7, 0-3 MAC) in a Mid-American Conference matchup. Central Michigan is a heavy favorite both on the moneyline and spread, reflecting UMassβs winless season and poor offensive output. The total is set at a moderate 46.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Central Michigan has a balanced offense with a strong rushing attack (190.6 yards/game, ranked 36th) but a weak passing game (139.1 yards/game, ranked 130th). They average 22.6 points/game while allowing 25.6 points. UMass has struggled offensively (11.3 points/game, ranked 136th) and has lost their last 11 games, struggling particularly in conference matchups.
- There is limited recent H2H data, but historically Central Michigan has dominated UMass. Central Michigan has covered the spread in each of its last five home games, while UMass has struggled on the road, failing to cover in four recent road games against non-top tier teams.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that would heavily impact the outcome.
- Game is played at Central Michiganβs home stadium, which has contributed to their recent home covers. Weather and other external factors appear neutral.
- UMass is highly motivated to avoid a winless season but would require a near-perfect game to upset. Central Michigan is motivated to solidify their position in the MAC and exploit UMassβs weaknesses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Michigan -675, UMass +490 | Central Michigan | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Central Michigan -16.5 (-105), UMass +16.5 (-115) | Central Michigan -16.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 46.5 (-115), Under 46.5 (-105) | Over 46.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 46.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Central Michigan to win straight up, cover the large spread of -16.5, and the game total to go over 46.5 points.
Predicted Score: Central Michigan 34 – UMass 14