Match Analysis: Central Michigan Chippewas vs Buffalo Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan
Game Overview
Two 5-4 MAC contenders—Central Michigan Chippewas and Buffalo Bulls—meet in a tightly contested matchup. Both teams are on the fringes of conference title contention, with Buffalo holding a slight edge in defense and Central Michigan boasting recent momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- Central Michigan is 4-1 over its last 5 games (both straight up and against the spread), indicating upward momentum. Buffalo’s defense ranks 7th in PFF tackling and 14th in defensive rushing success rate, suggesting they can neutralize Central Michigan’s strong ground game. Offensively, both teams average about 24 points per game, but Buffalo allows 5 fewer points per game defensively[1][3][6].
- No recent detailed head-to-head results available; both programs are of similar caliber, making this a true toss-up.
- No injury details reported in available data; assume both teams at full strength.
- No significant external factors reported; weather at game time is expected to be 39°F with 0% chance of rain and 11 mph wind, which should favor the defense and potentially slow down the passing game[1].
- Both teams need this win to stay alive in the MAC East race; Buffalo (4-1 MAC) has a slight edge in the standings over Central Michigan (3-2 MAC)[4].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls +102, Central Michigan Chippewas -120 | Buffalo Bulls +102 | ★★★☆☆ 53% |
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +2.5 -115, Central Michigan Chippewas -2.5 -105 | Buffalo Bulls +2.5 -115 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 44.5 -105, Under 44.5 -115 | Under 44.5 -115 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 44.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Buffalo’s defensive advantage and slight edge in motivation could tip this game, but Central Michigan’s home field and recent form are strong counterfactors. Expect a low-scoring, competitive game with value on Buffalo to keep it within a field goal on the road.
Predicted Score: Central Michigan 20, Buffalo 17