Match Analysis: Central Michigan Chippewas vs Buffalo Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan
Game Overview
A crucial Mid-American Conference matchup between two 5-4 teams, Central Michigan (3-2 MAC) and Buffalo (4-1 MAC), with both seeking to bolster bowl eligibility. Buffalo has a better conference record, while Central Michigan is favored at home. The Chippewas feature a strong run game (35th nationally) but a weak passing attack (125th). Buffalo's defense allows nearly 20 points per game, slightly better than Central Michigan's which surrenders 24 points per game. Both teams are similarly inconsistent overall, but Buffalo's tougher recent schedule and superior conference record provide intrigue for this matchup.[1][4]
Key Factors to Consider
- Central Michigan averages 24.1 points per game (98th nationally) and allows 24.0 (64th); Buffalo scores 24.8 per game and allows 19.6. Buffalo has been slightly more efficient defensively, while Central Michigan relies more on its rushing offense.[1][5]
- No specific head-to-head data for 2025 available in search results.
- No injury reports are available in search results.
- Home-field advantage for Central Michigan. Weather or other external factors not specified.
- High stakes for both teams in tight MAC standings. Buffalo is 4-1 in conference play, chasing a division title; Central Michigan at 3-2 needs a win for bowl eligibility and to keep pace in the MAC West.[4]
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Michigan -120, Buffalo +102 | Central Michigan to win | Moderate (59%โ60%) |
| Spread | Central Michigan -2.5 -105, Buffalo +2.5 -115 | Central Michigan covers -2.5 | Medium (55%โ58%) |
| Over/under | Over 44.5 -105, Under 44.5 -115 | Under 44.5 | High (60%โ65%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 44.5 12% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Central Michigan Chippewas at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Central Michigan is a slight favorite at home due to a strong run game and home-field edge. Buffalo's better conference record and marginally better defense make them a live underdog. Game is likely to be close, low-scoring, and decided by key turnovers or special teams plays. The forecasted win probability for Central Michigan is about 59.2%, compared to Buffalo's 40.8%.[4]
Predicted Score: Central Michigan 24, Buffalo 20