Match Analysis: Calgary Stampeders vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-07
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: McMahon Stadium
Game Overview
The Calgary Stampeders host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a CFL regular season matchup. Calgary enters as a slight underdog on the moneyline, despite a strong recent head-to-head record against Hamilton. Both teams are looking to build early-season momentum, with Calgary holding a historical dominance but recent form showing Hamilton as more competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Calgary won 4, scoring 28.0 points per game and conceding 21.4; while Hamilton won 3 of their last 5 games across all competitions, averaging 20.4 points per match but conceding more at 29.6 points per game. Calgary's recent form is stronger defensively, while Hamilton has shown inconsistency.
- Historically, Calgary leads the all-time series, with 65 wins to Hamilton's 34 (with four postseason games included), out of 99 total meetings. Since 2010, Calgary has won 21 of 25 regular matchups. In the last 5 meetings, Calgary leads 4-1, but in the broader recent 5 across all games, Hamilton has been more competitive (3 wins, but includes non-H2H games).
- No specific injury reports are available at this time for either team.
- The game is early in the season, reducing the impact of playoff or division pressures. Weather is typically mild in June in Calgary, but no extreme conditions are forecast.
- Both teams are motivated to start the season strong. Calgary may have extra motivation to defend their home turf and maintain their historical edge, though Hamilton is seeking revenge for recent head-to-head losses.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders: 112, Hamilton Tiger-Cats: -134 | Calgary Stampeders to win (value play due to home advantage and superior recent H2H record) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Calgary Stampeders: 1.5 (-102), Hamilton Tiger-Cats: -1.5 (-120) | Calgary covers the spread (1.5 point underdog is minor hurdle) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 52.5 (-110), Under: 52.5 (-110) | Slight lean to Under given Calgary's recent defensive solidity and Hamilton's offensive inconsistency | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders 27% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 52.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Calgary Stampeders at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Calgary Stampeders to win at home, covering the spread if key offensive units perform as usual. The total points are expected to be moderately high, but the under is slightly favored given recent scoring trends.
Predicted Score: Calgary Stampeders 27, Hamilton Tiger-Cats 23