Match Analysis: Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Highmark Stadium
Game Overview
Buffalo Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 11 NFL matchup. The Bills are favored at home, with both teams trending toward playoff contention but facing key injuries and inconsistent offensive performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Buffalo has averaged 24.3 PPG over the last 5 games, with a top-10 defense. Tampa Bay has struggled offensively, averaging just 19.8 PPG in their last 5, and ranks bottom-10 in yards per game. Bills have won 4 of their last 5, while Buccaneers have split their last 5.
- Buffalo leads the all-time series 5-3, with the last meeting in 2022 (Bills won 31-6). Bills have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
- Bills: RB James Cook (questionable, ankle), WR Khalil Shakir (out, concussion). Buccaneers: QB Baker Mayfield (probable, knee), WR Mike Evans (out, hamstring), TE Cade Otton (out, knee). Key absences for Tampa Bay hurt their red-zone efficiency and passing attack.
- Game will be played in cold, windy conditions (highs of 42Β°F, 15 mph winds). This favors run-heavy teams and suppresses passing efficiency. Buffaloβs home record is 4-1 this season.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning. Bills are chasing the AFC East lead, while Buccaneers are clinging to a wild card spot. Bills have more to gain with a win, adding extra motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -250, away: 205 | Buffalo Bills | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home: -5.5 -110, away: 5.5 -110 | Buffalo Bills -5.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | over: 47.5 -110, under: 47.5 -110 | Under 47.5 | β β β β β 76% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 47.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Buffalo Bills win outright and cover the spread, with the game finishing under the total points line due to weather and defensive strength.
Predicted Score: Buffalo Bills 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
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