Match Analysis: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-18
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: Bills Stadium (Buffalo, NY)
Game Overview
The Buffalo Bills enter this AFC East matchup as dominant favorites against the Miami Dolphins, riding strong offensive and defensive performances early in the season and looking to extend their undefeated streak. The Dolphins are struggling with form and injuries but will be highly motivated to avoid an 0-3 start.
Key Factors to Consider
- Buffalo's offense has been efficient, with strong rushing and passing led by Josh Allen. Their defense has stifled opponents, notably holding the Jets to minimal offensive production. Miami has shown offensive promise but inconsistency and key injuries have limited effectiveness.
- In the past two seasons, Buffalo has dominated Miami, winning most matchups decisively, though some games were competitive. Buffalo has a clear edge in this rivalry.
- Miami has significant injury concerns impacting their offensive weapons and quarterback consistency. Buffalo is healthier with full strength on both sides of the ball.
- Thursday Night Football under prime-time pressure favors the home team, Buffalo, with a supportive venue and crowd. Travel and short rest affect Miami more negatively.
- Miami is highly motivated to avoid falling 0-3 early in the season but Buffalo aims to maintain their leading position in the division and continue dominance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Buffalo Bills: -800, Miami Dolphins: +550 | Buffalo Bills | β β β β β 86% |
Spread | Buffalo Bills -12.5: -112, Miami Dolphins +12.5: -108 | Buffalo Bills -12.5 | β β β β β 78% |
Over/under | Over 49.5: -110, Under 49.5: -110 | Over 49.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Buffalo Bills -10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 49.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 49.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Buffalo Bills moneyline win, Buffalo Bills -12.5 spread cover, Over 49.5 total points
Predicted Score: Buffalo Bills 34 – Miami Dolphins 17