Match Analysis: Bowling Green Falcons vs Buffalo Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Game Overview
Bowling Green Falcons host Buffalo Bulls in a pivotal MAC matchup. Both teams are trending toward .500, but recent form and defensive trends suggest a tight, low-scoring contest. The Falcons are favored, but Buffaloβs recent struggles as favorites and Bowling Greenβs home edge tilt the balance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Buffalo has split its last 8 games, averaging 151.9 rushing yards but allowing 21.3 points per game. Bowling Green is 3-5, but their defense has held opponents to 24 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games. Buffaloβs offense is inconsistent, while Bowling Green has shown resilience at home.
- No recent H2H data is available, but Buffaloβs recent loss as a 10-point favorite to Akron and Bowling Greenβs narrow loss to Kent State as underdogs suggest both teams are prone to upsets and close games.
- Key injuries include Buffalo WR Bobby Mays (undisclosed), WR Dwayne Early Jr. (undisclosed), TE Ryan Daly (undisclosed), QB Drew Pyne (ankle), QB Lucian Anderson III (undisclosed), and RB Cameron Pettaway (undisclosed). Bowling Greenβs injury report is clean, giving them a depth advantage.
- The game is at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where Bowling Green has a slight home-field edge. The weather is expected to be mild, with no major impact on play. The low total (43.5) reflects expectations of a defensive battle.
- Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility and conference relevance. Bowling Green is desperate for a win to stay in contention, while Buffalo seeks to avoid a losing season. The Falconsβ motivation is slightly higher given their home crowd and recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | Bowling Green Falcons | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | -108 | Bowling Green Falcons -2.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | -108 | Under 43.5 | β β β β β 76% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 43.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bowling Green Falcons win outright and cover the spread in a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 17