Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Game Overview
The Boise State Broncos (6-4) host the Colorado State Rams (2-8) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Boise State is heavily favored, reflecting their stronger season performance and home advantage. The Rams face a tough challenge to upset the Broncos, who have been dominant offensively with an average point total above the game's over/under line.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boise State boasts a 6-4 overall record with solid offensive production, averaging approximately 55.8 points overall with 57.7 at home. Their ATS record stands positive at 6-3-1, including a 4-1 mark at home, evidencing strong performance and consistency. Colorado State struggles with a 2-8 record, indicating offensive and defensive difficulties and low confidence against superior opposition.
- Historically, Boise State has dominated Colorado State in recent meetings, reflected in the sportsbooks' large spread favoring Boise State (-16.5 points). The Broncos' superior conference standing (2-0 MWC) versus Colorado State's (1-1 MWC) further supports Boise State's edge.
- No significant injury reports have been detailed for either team in the available data that would drastically affect the outcome.
- The game is played at Boise State's home stadium, Albertsons Stadium, offering a significant home-field advantage. Weather conditions are mild (46ยฐF and dry), so no weather disruptions are expected.
- Boise State aims to consolidate its strong season and maintain Mountain West dominance. Colorado State seeks an upset to salvage what has been a difficult year, but motivation alone is challenged by Boise State's strong form and home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos: -800, Colorado State Rams: 550 | Boise State Broncos | โ โ โ โ โ 90% |
| Spread | Boise State Broncos: -16.5 -108, Colorado State Rams: +16.5 -112 | Boise State Broncos (-16.5) | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 44.5: -112, Under 44.5: -108 | Over 44.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 44.5 33% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boise State Broncos are predicted to win decisively, covering the spread with a strong offensive performance. The total points are expected to go over the 44.5 benchmark due to Boise State's high-scoring offense and Colorado State's defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 42 – Colorado State Rams 20