Match Analysis: Baylor Bears vs Utah Utes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
Game Overview
The Baylor Bears (5-4, 3-3 Big 12) host the Utah Utes (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) in a pivotal Big 12 matchup on November 16, 2025. The Utes enter as heavy favorites, with the spread set at 7.5 points and the over/under at 60.5. Both teams have contrasting strengths: Baylor boasts one of the nation's top passing attacks, while Utah features the sixth-ranked passing defense. The game will be televised on ESPN2 and is expected to be a high-scoring affair given the offensive firepower on display.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah is 7-2 overall and 7-2 against the spread, showing consistency and resilience. They are 6-0 as 7.5-point or better favorites this season. Their offense averages 51.1 points per game, with a strong home record (53.1 points per game). Baylor is 5-4 overall and 2-7 against the spread, struggling to cover in recent games. The Bears have gone over the total in five of their nine games, but their defense has been vulnerable, especially against the pass.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Utah has dominated the series in recent years, winning the last three matchups. The Utes' defense has generally stifled Baylor's offense, and Utah's ability to control the tempo has been a key factor.
- No major injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their full starting lineups.
- The game will be played at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, with mild weather conditions (76ยฐF, 0% chance of rain). The home-field advantage for Baylor is minimal given Utah's strong away record (3-1-0 ATS, 48.5 points per game on the road).
- Utah is fighting for a Big 12 title and a potential College Football Playoff berth, while Baylor is aiming to secure a bowl-eligible record and improve their postseason prospects. The Utes' motivation is higher, given their national ranking and playoff aspirations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears: +240, Utah Utes: -295 | Utah Utes | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | Baylor Bears: +7.5 -110, Utah Utes: -7.5 -110 | Utah Utes -7.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 60.5 -108, Under: 60.5 -112 | Over | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Utes -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 60.5 6% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 60.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah is favored to win this matchup, with a predicted score of 34-24. The Utes' defense is expected to contain Baylor's high-powered passing attack, while Utah's balanced offense should exploit Baylor's defensive weaknesses. The game is likely to be competitive, but Utah's consistency and motivation should give them the edge.
Predicted Score: Utah Utes 34, Baylor Bears 24