Match Analysis: Ball State Cardinals vs Kent State Golden Flashes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Scheumann Stadium, Ball State (Home)
Game Overview
A pair of even-matched MAC teams, Ball State Cardinals and Kent State Golden Flashes, each 3-5 overall (2-2 in conference), meet with both needing a win to keep bowl hopes alive. Both are coming off recent wins but have been inconsistent, particularly on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ball State has dominated at home recently (3-0 last three, 11-1 ATS last 12), while Kent State has lost 18 straight road games and is 0-9 in true road games under current staff. Ball Stateβs ground attack is significantly better (+440 yards), but both offenses are among the worst in FBS. Ball Stateβs defense has struggled on the road but performed better at home. Kent Stateβs defense has improved in MAC play, yielding just 5.19 yards per play in October, while Ball State allowed 5.7 YPP in the same span[1][2].
- Limited recent H2H data was available, but home-field advantage has been dominant for Ball State recently, winning their last nine home games straight-up[1].
- No major injury updates found in available sources.
- No major weather or external interruptions expected. Home-field edge is notable for Ball State, especially against a road-inept Kent State team[1].
- Both teams are desperate, but Ball Stateβs recent home momentum and Kent Stateβs road futility are stark motivators. Kent State is improved but all wins have come at home; Ball Stateβs wins are more balanced[1][2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State -132 / Kent State +112 | Ball State wins | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Ball State -2.5 -110 / Kent State +2.5 -110 | Ball State covers -2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 47.5 -105 / Under 47.5 -115 | Under 47.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals 23% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 47.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Ball State Cardinals at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ball Stateβs home dominance and Kent Stateβs road struggles are the deciding factors. Expect a low-scoring, defensive MAC battle with Ball State grinding out a close win.
Predicted Score: Ball State 20, Kent State 16