Match Analysis: Ball State Cardinals vs Eastern Michigan Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Indiana
Game Overview
MAC conference matchup between Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-7, 2-4 MAC) visiting Ball State Cardinals (4-5, 3-2 MAC). Eastern Michigan enters as 2.5-point favorites despite their inferior record, indicating sportsbooks are pricing in defensive strength. Both teams are struggling offensively, making this a low-scoring conference game with significant uncertainty.
Key Factors to Consider
- Eastern Michigan averages 24.4 PPG (77th in CFB) but allows 31.7 PPG (128th in CFB), indicating poor defensive efficiency despite offensive competence. Ball State averages only 16.4 PPG (130th in CFB) with 27.9 PPG allowed (85th in CFB), showing they're the weaker offensive unit. Eastern Michigan's 10-game sample shows a 52.4 average total, while Ball State's 9-game sample shows 48.1. Ball State is 4-0 at home ATS this season, a strong indicator of home-field advantage value.
- No specific historical H2H data provided in search results. Both teams are MAC conference members with similar competitive levels, though Eastern Michigan's defensive weakness could be exploited by Ball State's home crowd.
- No injury information available in provided search results.
- Ball State plays at home with clear home-field advantage (4-0 ATS at home). Weather conditions are favorable at 61Β°F with 0% rain chance. Public betting shows 54% of bets and money on Eastern Michigan, suggesting potential sharp action on Ball State value at home. Ball State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, demonstrating strong recent form.
- Ball State's 3-2 MAC record puts them in playoff contention within the conference, while Eastern Michigan's 2-4 MAC record suggests diminished postseason hopes. Home teams in MAC conference games typically show higher motivation, and Ball State's recent ATS success indicates confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State +110 | Eastern Michigan -130 | Ball State Cardinals | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Ball State +2.5 (-112) | Eastern Michigan -2.5 (-108) | Ball State +2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 50.5 (-108) | Under 50.5 (-112) | Under 50.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 50.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Ball State Cardinals at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ball State Cardinals represent the highest expected value play in this matchup. Despite being underdogs, their home-field advantage (4-0 ATS at home), superior defensive efficiency, recent strong ATS form (4-1 in last 5), and public undervaluation create a +110 moneyline edge. The 2.5-point spread offers additional value, as Ball State's home record suggests the line underestimates their actual home performance.
Predicted Score: Ball State 24, Eastern Michigan 23