Match Analysis: Ball State Cardinals vs Akron Zips – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Scheumann Stadium, Ball State
Game Overview
The Ball State Cardinals (2-4, 1-1 MAC) host the Akron Zips (2-5, 1-2 MAC) in a Mid-American Conference matchup. Both teams have struggling records and have been inconsistent offensively and defensively. Ball State holds a slight home advantage, but Akron has a capable ground game. The teams are similarly matched, leading to close betting lines and uncertain outcomes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ball State has lost 4 of 6 recent games and is 1-1 in conference play, showing moderate home strength but overall mediocrity. Akron is 2-5 overall and 1-2 in conference, with a run-heavy offense that averages 130.9 rushing yards per game but a defense allowing 29 points and 439.1 yards on average. Both teams have offensive inefficienciesโAkron's QB Ben Finley completes only 50.8% passes, and Ball State has underperformed against mid-tier opponents.
- No recent dominance from either side; historically and in recent matchups the results have been split or close, indicating a balanced contest without a clear trend favoring one team.
- No specific injury data available; assume standard roster availability given no reports to the contrary.
- Ball State hosting at Scheumann Stadium provides home field advantage. Weather or other environmental factors are not reported to affect the game significantly.
- Ball State seeks to leverage home advantage to improve a middling season; Akron looks to rebound from recent losses and stay competitive in MAC standings. Both teams have incentive but prior trends show Ball State performs better as a home favorite.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Akron Zips: -102, Ball State Cardinals: -118 | Ball State to win | โ โ โ โโ 58% |
| Spread | Akron Zips +1.5: -115, Ball State Cardinals -1.5: -105 | Ball State to cover -1.5 spread | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 41.5: -112, Under 41.5: -108 | Under 41.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 41.5 16% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 41.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ball State is favored narrowly due to home advantage and slightly better recent form. The game is expected to be close, but with Ball State edging Akron by a small margin.
Predicted Score: Ball State 21 – Akron 17