Match Analysis: Auburn Tigers vs Ball State Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium
Game Overview
Auburn hosts Ball State in a Week 2 NCAA football game. Auburn is coming off a strong opening win over Baylor (38-24) and shows solid offensive and red zone efficiency, whereas Ball State is 0-1 after a shutout loss at Purdue (0-31). Auburn is heavily favored with a large 43.5-point spread and a total around 52.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Auburn has started 1-0 with a high-scoring offense and a defense that has been solid but will face a risk of allowing some points due to Ball Stateβs aggressive offense. Ball State is 0-1, struggling on the road, especially in September against unranked teams, and has weak passing defense rankings.
- Auburn holds a favorable historial advantage, having beaten Ball State convincingly in their last meeting (54-30 in 2008). Auburn also maintains a 3-0 all-time record against Ball State.
- Auburn has a notable injury with safety Champ Anthony out (thumb) and RB Damari Alston questionable (shoulder). Ball State reports no significant injuries.
- The game will be played in Auburnβs home venue with afternoon to evening dropping temperatures from low 90s to 70s, favorable for Auburnβs style. The broadcast will be on ESPNU.
- Auburn aims to keep momentum after a big win and establish dominance at home early in the season. Ball State seeks to avoid a two-game losing streak and prove competitiveness on the road despite historical struggles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Auburn -110 / Ball State +3500 | Auburn | β β β β β 93% |
Spread | Auburn -43.5 (-110) / Ball State +43.5 (-110) | Ball State +43.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 52.5 -110 / Under 52.5 -110 | Under 52.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Home 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 52.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Auburn to win on the moneyline, but Ball State to cover the large spread; total points expected to be under 53.
Predicted Score: Auburn 38 – Ball State 17