Match Analysis: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas
Game Overview
The Texas State Bobcats (3-1) travel to face the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-4) in a Sun Belt conference matchup. Texas State enters as a strong favorite with superior recent form, while Arkansas State have struggled, especially on defense and in road games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State boasts a 3-1 record with solid performances in offense and defense, while Arkansas State is 1-4, showing struggles limiting opponents and poor road ATS records.
- Recent H2H data is limited, but historical trends and form heavily favor Texas State, who have dominated matchups and maintained consistent play.
- No significant injury reports substantially impacting either team have been publicly noted leading into the game.
- The game weather is favorable (82Β°F, 0% rain, wind 8 mph), minimizing environmental impact. The home crowd is expected to support Arkansas State but may not offset their poor form.
- Texas State looks motivated to maintain their superior standing and improve conference positioning; Arkansas State is under pressure to rebound from a poor start.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +390, away: -520 | Texas State Bobcats | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | home: +13.5 -110, away: -13.5 -110 | Texas State Bobcats -13.5 | β β β β β 78% |
Over/under | over: 64.5 -108, under: 64.5 -112 | Over 64.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 64.5 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 64.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas State to win on the Moneyline, cover the -13.5 point spread, with the game total going Over 64.5 points.
Predicted Score: Texas State 38 – Arkansas State 17