Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Game Overview
The 2025 college football game between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Notre Dame Fighting Irish is a key Week 5 matchup, with Arkansas holding a 2-2 overall record and Notre Dame at 1-2. The game is set at the Razorbacks' home stadium, presenting a significant SEC vs. Independent clash. Notre Dame enters as the moneyline favorite despite a tougher season start, while Arkansas, coming from the SEC, aims to leverage home-field advantage and momentum from an even record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas Razorbacks are 2-2 with a solid SEC schedule and have shown resilience at home. Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 1-2 with early-season struggles but traditionally strong defenses and strategic gameplay. Arkansas has better recent form and home advantage but Notre Dame's lineage and coaching may offset this.
- Recent historical data on direct matchups is limited; however, Arkansasโ home advantage and the Razorbacksโ recent better overall record (2-2 vs. 1-2) suggest a slight edge. The spread and odds imply bookmakers see a competitive but close game.
- No specific injury reports available in the data; thus, no significant injury concerns are factored into predictions currently.
- Game played at Arkansas home stadium supports Razorbacks. Weather and other externalities unreported but September late month suggests typical fall football conditions. The game is a noon/early afternoon kickoff favoring Arkansasโ local conditions.
- Arkansas aims to improve their record and show toughness in SEC home games. Notre Dame seeks to rebound from a losing start and prove capability on the road against SEC opposition, adding motivational intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks: +164, Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -198 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks: +4.5 -112, Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -4.5 -108 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 64.5 -108, Under: 64.5 -112 | Under 64.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 64.5 10% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 64.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Notre Dame is favored to win narrowly, but Arkansasโ home field and recent form make this a close contest. The prediction leans toward Notre Dame covering the -4.5 spread, with an expected moderate scoring game slightly under the total line.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 28 – 23 Arkansas Razorbacks