Match Analysis: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Game Overview
The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide host the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners in a high-stakes NCAA football matchup. Alabama enters as favorite both on the moneyline and spread, with the total set near 45.5 points, reflecting expectations of a competitive but controlled scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alabama holds an 8-1 record with a very strong home advantage (5-0 ATS at home) supported by the 14th-ranked passing offense. Oklahoma is 7-2 overall with a solid defense ranked 23rd against the pass but slightly weaker than Alabama's attack.
- Recent matchups favor Alabama with strong performances vs Oklahoma; historical trends show Alabama's ability to cover moderate spreads at home against this team.
- No major injuries reported impacting key offensive or defensive starters on either side, preserving both teams' depth and capabilities.
- Home-field advantage for Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium is significant, with crowd support expected to influence momentum.
- Alabama aims to consolidate a top 4 national ranking; Oklahoma seeks to break into the top 10. Both teams are highly motivated, but Alabamaβs superior home convenience and recent form give them an edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide: -225, Oklahoma Sooners: +185 | Alabama Crimson Tide | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -6: -108, Oklahoma Sooners +6: -112 | Alabama Crimson Tide -6 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 45.5: -112, Under 45.5: -108 | Over 45.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 45.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 45.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama Crimson Tide to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -6 spread, and the game to go over 45.5 points.
Predicted Score: Alabama Crimson Tide 31 – Oklahoma Sooners 20