Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs Wyoming Cowboys – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, Colorado
Game Overview
The Air Force Falcons (1-5) host the Wyoming Cowboys (3-3) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Air Force is favored by the bookmakers, primarily due to their strong rushing offense and home-field advantage, despite a poor overall record. Wyoming has shown moderate success this season but faces challenges against the Falcons' run-heavy attack and Colorado Springs altitude.
Key Factors to Consider
- Air Force boasts one of the nationโs top rushing offenses, averaging 276.2 yards per game (3rd nationally) and scoring 38.3 points per game (19th nationally), yet they struggle defensively, allowing 40 points per game (134th). Wyoming, at 3-3, presents a balanced but less explosive offense, and their defense has shown inconsistency.
- Recent historical data lacks detailed head-to-head records for this season, but Air Forceโs home advantage and style traditionally challenge Wyomingโs offense due to their option-oriented rushing attack.
- No critical injuries reported for either team currently. Both squads appear to have their key starters available for the matchup.
- The game is played at altitude in Colorado Springs (Falcon Stadium), potentially favoring the Air Force, accustomed to these conditions. Weather conditions are expected to be typical for October with no adverse effects forecasted.
- Air Force, struggling with a 1-5 record, will be highly motivated to secure a home win and improve their conference standing. Wyoming has a more balanced season but may undervalue the Falcons given their record, which could impact their confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons: -192, Wyoming Cowboys: 160 | Air Force Falcons win | โ โ โ โ โ 72% |
| Spread | Air Force Falcons: -4 -110, Wyoming Cowboys: +4 -110 | Air Force Falcons will cover the -4 spread | โ โ โ โโ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 58.5 -110, Under: 58.5 -110 | Over 58.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 58.5 15% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 58.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Air Force wins narrowly by covering the spread due to their dominant rushing attack and home-field advantage. The high scoring game is likely given Air Forceโs weak defense and Wyomingโs ability to put up points.
Predicted Score: Air Force Falcons 34 – Wyoming Cowboys 28